Silkroad Online Forums

I just confirmed limitation of luck again.
Yesterday I made a lvl 72 glavie from +4--+7 with 1 astral
I thought it might have been my lucky day so i used a str tab, woot str went +5 100% in 1 try, and I added a int tab, woot, int went +5 in 1 try, and then I used a blk tab, woot blk went 100%.
Since I was so lucky, I decided to use some elixirs on my shield, woot shield went +3, how about some more elixirs for accessory, woot, ring went +4.

My luck ended there yesterday, after that I used a atk rating tab, failed, tried to + another ring, failed at +2 for 3 times. I guess my luck for the day must have been used up.

As a conclusion, if you failed more than twice on a day, you should stop trying and do it another day. I know some people blew 200$ on a weapon that never went +7.

edit:
Luck in alchemy really varies on different days, the day before yesterday I was extreamly unlucky and failed 6 times tried to +3 a shield.

I know how bad it can be....i once blew 300k
on trying to +7 my glave, at the end u gave up and just brought a good
+3 one for 150k.

wow... 300k is SOOO much...NOT.

Sorry MamaSen but to me it's bollocks.

People are too sensitive. It's luck 50 / 50 w/e. Sro is all based on luck. Not how well you do, not where you stand not how many astral you have. It's LUCK.

LUCK

omg i hate alchemy wep elixirs cost too much

Yeh all I'm trying to say is luck varies on different days, not where you do alchemy. If your stats of luck is high on the day, miracle will happen, if not, you'll have a hard time to even make something +3.
I think there must be some invisible calculator for luck in SRO.

lol well am in the game what i am in real life...CHEAP

If someone hasn't asked yet, why don't they ask JM how alchemy works? and if they give an answer then post it here so everyone can learn from it.

so .... you bought 1 and a half elixirs? or 3 elixirs off a noob selling them for 100k? i dont get how u can spend 300k on trying to +7

back to 200k each on athens. i cleaned out 2 stalls full of em
..just incase it ever went up agagin.

lol.

Actually, the only luck you had was some 1's and 0's in the right place.

IMO, your luck depends on these few things....


how much lucky total in your current suit (like luck 1 times + 2 times +5 times stuff like that)
and you probably have to fix your weapons before ugrade?
it's goo to add astral, and immortal, they ain't that expensive

anyways, the probability is too low to flush a good weap

Lol nub bringing rumors from 1000 years ago. The amount of lucky status on your suit means shit, it's the amount of luck on the item.

^-^ thanks for clearing this up for me, i've always thought about it like that so i just wore some low lvl equips when doing upgrades,

I've been preaching the random theory for a while now but I do get torn at times.

I +5'd my bow a couple weeks ago and tried for +6 and failed, 3 times. Wasted two luckies. And it would usually go back to +5 within two tries, 3 max. So at +5 I put another lucky on it and my friend said he was feeling lucky one day and sure enough he got +6. I added another lucky and left it at +6 for a while.

The other night two people in my union got +7 so I was feeling left out and went for it - failure. Then second try I get back to +5 then right back to +6. Thinking oh boy that was easy I go for 7 again and failed.

Something went bad at this point. I think the jewelry lapidary dude sold me some unlucky powder or something. I failed to get +5 12 times in a row hat night. Even had a friend try it a couple times. So, after 12 tries my 500 silk was gone sand I waited until the next day.

Next day, I think it was 4 or 5 more failures (and one wasted lucky) before I had one weapon elixer left. Let my same friend try again and he got it back to +5 again, finally. I just hope it's over being a bad bad unlucky bow lol.


I believe it's all random but even with randomness you can come up with some probabilities. Like, if you fail to +5 3 times in a row, it gets more likely that it won't fail again because it's bound to work at some point. I've +5'd a lot of weapons and up until this I think 7 tries was the most it's taken, and that was 2 other people trying 3 times before I got it on the 2nd try. 80% of the time I get it on the 3rd try.
So I was like manic thinking omg 12 failures, no way it will fail again.. FAILURE, wow can't happen again.. FAILURE.. no way it'll fail now.. FAILURE doesn't that define insanity? hehe

Another interesting one was my lvl1 shield. It went to +3 like a champ but simply refused to go +4. I think I tried at least 10 prolly 15 times to +4 it and no. So one day after blowing through 20 something elixers I call for help and some union mate says he'll try . I'd just failed to +2 so I gave him my last 4 elixers and the powders and the shield. It was funny cuz he hadn't done much alchemy before, he couldn't believe he got it straight to +3 and thought I crazy trying to go further. I insisted he try and sure enough, lucky bugger got +4 in 4 elixers.
So, of all the patterns I've noticed this one is the most convincing. It's hard to define. But it's liek the topic starter said. Some days you're good some days your bad. Also though, sometimes it hates you and would rather work for your friend. It's like something gets ticked when it changes hands.. something resets.


Still I think our brains make more of things that there really is to them. But, I'm beginning to agree that if you fail 4+ times.. try tomorrow. At least you'll save some duckets and spread your emotional distress out a bit. That concentrated anger can break stuff ya know.

And of course I too would just love to know what the code behind this system looks like. Some people swear it's per character, some think it's per item, some prolly think both. Some think lucky on their items got them their sos drop, hell I even heard from someone they get way more drops now that they carry a lucky powder around in their inv.. it's silly.

Similar to debating our origins as humans.. until we have some facts on the matter it's all just speculative. For the moment though.. randomness prevails in my head. Now that I broke the consecutive failures attempting +5 record I must have some good luck around the corner right? ^^ If I could just get that many consecutive successes now.

Cheers and good luck!

i think the guy above is right


if you fail the first try, your % of second try is added for around 10%?
some one just told me that on msn

if you failed to try from +4 to +5

say you have 50% of chance to get to +5 when +4,
you failed once, the next try would have 55% to get to +5 from +4
failed again, then next try would have 60%

and so on...
anyone proved this hypothesis?

Well like I said, there are probabilities there, there's no hypothesis needed. I'm not sure what the actual %s are - we would need the actual % of success on a +5 attempt in order to calculate it accurately, and we can only guess at that. In my experience I'd say the % chance for success going to +5 is like 10-20% I'd calculate something from this assumption but I had to forget statistics so I could remember what every degree of each class of defensive gear looks like

i also have a theory...


the more time you go without doing any alchemy, the more likely you will get something to go right to +3 or higher with no fails.


to test this i did this....

when i quit playing my char on olympus i left him alone for over a month.

then one day i came into the server, grabbed my sos24 blade i had in storage and 3 lixers. got 3 luck powders and blam +3.

then i did it on 2 other items. and both went +3 first try.

this also works on my chars now. my nuker which has barely done any alchemy at all has +3 things first try every time.

i dont know, but it seems like if you take breaks from alchemy and dont do it every day, you have more of a chance of getting things to succeed.

Agree! I tried to use my mules do alchemy at one time and next time using my main.